TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13085192
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Pina
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111165111171412
Karel Farsky
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:18 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Farsky to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Pina above · Karel Farsky below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 95 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Karel Farsky at 57.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Pina 3–3 Karel Farsky Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Farsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pina 1430 vs Farsky 1397
Pina
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pina 40% vs Farsky 20%
Pina
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pina 40% vs Farsky 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pina +1 · Farsky -3
Farsky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Farsky) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Farsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPina 2.10 / Farsky 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Farsky)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13085192
Pina2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 13 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back36% 8 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Farsky1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 51 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it69% 35 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePina3wins
AwayFarsky3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePinan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFarsky40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pina1Farsky5n = 6Farsky took 5 of 6
S2Pina5Farsky1n = 6Pina took 5 of 6
S3Pina3Farsky3n = 6split evenly
S4Pina1Farsky5n = 6Farsky took 5 of 6
S5Pina3Farsky1n = 4Pina took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPinaFarskyP − FBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match42.344.5−2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPinaFarskyBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 119 vs 168 / 34948.7%48.1%58 / 119 vs 168 / 349Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyPina 2.10/Farsky 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina—711511143K. Farsky—116117122
WAug 27 · 21:08J. Pina—511117113K. Farsky—11981142
LAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina—12117282K. Farsky—1071111113
LJul 3 · 15:30J. Pina—9511141K. Farsky—11117163
WJun 28 · 20:44J. Pina—811117113K. Farsky—11891122
LJun 28 · 19:45J. Pina—1211471K. Farsky—14511113
J. Pina10
LSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131WSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121LSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113WAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981LAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762WAug 23 · 06:30J. Pina1.9112911113P. Hlina1.801011771
K. Farsky10
WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450WSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113WAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162
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