TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022768
Played Aug 27Finished
Jan Botka
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012811119117119
Jan Pina
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJan Botka to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Botka above · Jan Pina below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jan Botka at 57.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jan Botka 1–1 Jan Pina Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:10What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Botka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Botka 1382 vs Pina 1442
Pina
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Botka 20% vs Pina 40%
Pina
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Botka 10% vs Pina 40%
Pina
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Botka -1 · Pina -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Botka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Botka form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBotka 1.61 / Pina 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Botka)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022768
Botka1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 8 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it50% 6 of 12
Pina2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back38% 9 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back24% 4 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBotka1wins
AwayPina1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBotkaPinaB − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.036.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBotkaPinaBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 91 vs 55 / 11241.8%49.1%38 / 91 vs 55 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BotkaBotka 1.61/Pina 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Botka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Botka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJun 27 · 08:35J. Botka—11117992J. Pina—891111113
WJun 27 · 07:30J. Botka—1311113J. Pina—11570
J. Botka10
WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171WAug 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.531181041J. Botka2.3831112113LAug 9 · 19:00J. Botka1.5011117962M. Vorel2.50781111113LAug 9 · 18:00J. Botka2.38111111892M. Bruk1.53313911113LAug 8 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.40121112113J. Botka2.751071471LAug 8 · 07:45J. Botka2.208390Z. Kuksa1.611111113LAug 8 · 06:15M. Taranko1.671111112113J. Botka2.10131191052
J. Pina10
LSep 6 · 21:03K. Jirousek1.5711127113J. Pina2.255101131WSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122WSep 6 · 18:30J. Pina1.9111611143A. Dvoracek1.808118121LSep 6 · 17:30J. Pina2.255141151K. Jirousek1.5711168113WAug 27 · 21:08K. Farsky1.5711981142J. Pina2.25511117113LAug 27 · 20:00J. Pina2.2512117282K. Farsky1.571071111113LAug 27 · 18:30K. Jirousek1.6711811113J. Pina2.10911981LAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 07:30J. Pina2.101212411113A. Dvoracek1.67101411762WAug 23 · 06:30J. Pina1.9112911113P. Hlina1.801011771
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