TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12385720
Played Aug 9Finished
Jan Botka
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117118711911611
Martin Vorel
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Botka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Botka above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Botka at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Botka 2–0 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Botka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Botka 1379 vs Vorel 1512
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Botka 0% vs Vorel 80%
Vorel
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Botka 20% vs Vorel 50%
Vorel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Botka -5 · Vorel -1
Botka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Botka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBotka 1.50 / Vorel 2.50
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Botka)-8.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12385720
Botka1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 9 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Vorel2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 92 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back32% 30 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBotka2wins
AwayVorel0wins
Botka leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBotkaVorelB − VBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.531.0+7.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBotkaVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 87 vs 410 / 77942.5%52.6%37 / 87 vs 410 / 779Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BotkaBotka 1.50/Vorel 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Botka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WFeb 14 · 12:00J. Botka—131112113M. Vorel—1591051
WJan 10 · 16:45J. Botka—121173M. Vorel—10850
J. Botka10
WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162WAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171WAug 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.531181041J. Botka2.3831112113LAug 9 · 18:00J. Botka2.38111111892M. Bruk1.53313911113LAug 8 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.40121112113J. Botka2.751071471LAug 8 · 07:45J. Botka2.208390Z. Kuksa1.611111113LAug 8 · 06:15M. Taranko1.671111112113J. Botka2.10131191052
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143WAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171
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