TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088748
Played Sep 7Finished
Petr Hlina
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811117115––
Martin Vorel
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:19 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timePetr Hlina to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Hlina above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Petr Hlina at 62.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Petr Hlina 9–5 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hlina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Hlina
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hlina 1459 vs Vorel 1414
Hlina
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hlina 40% vs Vorel 60%
Vorel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hlina 60% vs Vorel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hlina +1 · Vorel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Hlina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHlina 1.53 / Vorel 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Hlina)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13088748
Hlina1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Vorel2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 78 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHlina6wins
AwayVorel4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHlina leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHlina83.3%5 of 6
AwayVorel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hlina6Vorel4n = 10Hlina took 6 of 10
S2Hlina7Vorel3n = 10Hlina took 7 of 10
S3Hlina5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S4Hlina4Vorel2n = 6Hlina took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHlinaVorelH − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.3+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHlinaVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 156 vs 409 / 79052.6%51.8%82 / 156 vs 409 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HlinaHlina 1.53/Vorel 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Hlina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hlina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 16:28P. Hlina—1111113M. Vorel—9870
WSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina—71111113M. Vorel—118211
LAug 31 · 09:03P. Hlina—118101462M. Vorel—7111212113
WAug 31 · 06:30P. Hlina—14114123M. Vorel—12811101
WAug 25 · 05:30P. Hlina—11147113M. Vorel—8121171
LMay 30 · 08:29P. Hlina—561171M. Vorel—11118113
LMay 30 · 07:00P. Hlina—8880M. Vorel—1111113
LMay 6 · 08:59P. Hlina—81212111M. Vorel—111014133
WMay 6 · 06:30P. Hlina—1116113M. Vorel—61490
WJan 14 · 08:00P. Hlina—1111113M. Vorel—9870
P. Hlina10
WSep 7 · 06:30P. Hlina1.831241211113O. Plyska1.83141110962WSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 15:30P. Hlina2.00111178132V. Toman1.73861111153WSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211LSep 2 · 13:30P. Hlina2.25991461L. Tuma1.57111112113LAug 31 · 09:03M. Vorel2.107111212113P. Hlina1.67118101462WAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672WAug 31 · 06:30P. Hlina1.8314114123M. Vorel1.8312811101LAug 31 · 05:30P. Hlina2.5041111892T. Bertho1.50116211113WAug 25 · 08:33J. Mejzlik1.917750P. Hlina1.801111113
M. Vorel10
LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211LSep 2 · 14:00V. Toman1.671111113M. Vorel2.107570WAug 31 · 09:03M. Vorel2.107111212113P. Hlina1.67118101462LAug 31 · 06:30P. Hlina1.8314114123M. Vorel1.8312811101
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