TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061556
Played Sep 2Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7117111214––––
Ladislav Tuma
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Ladislav Tuma below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 62 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Martin Vorel at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 23–18 Ladislav Tuma Ladislav Tuma has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vorel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Vorel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1422 vs Tuma 1464
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 40% vs Tuma 80%
Tuma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 60% vs Tuma 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -2 · Tuma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.73 / Tuma 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vorel)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13061556
Vorel1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 102 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 97
Tuma2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel6wins
AwayTuma4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel100%4 of 4
AwayTuma66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S2Vorel5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S3Vorel7Tuma3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S4Vorel3Tuma4n = 7Tuma took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelTumaV − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.8+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 792 vs 234 / 47151.9%49.7%411 / 792 vs 234 / 471Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.73/Tuma 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 18:45M. Vorel—891131L. Tuma—11115113
LAug 19 · 05:30M. Vorel—1071161L. Tuma—12116113
LAug 10 · 16:37M. Vorel—912891L. Tuma—111011113
WAug 10 · 14:00M. Vorel—1112133L. Tuma—410110
WJul 23 · 16:00M. Vorel—11813113L. Tuma—8111191
LJun 9 · 16:58M. Vorel—51080L. Tuma—1112113
WJun 9 · 14:30M. Vorel—831111113L. Tuma—11118572
WMar 27 · 17:29M. Vorel—912117113L. Tuma—111071192
WMar 27 · 14:30M. Vorel—1211113L. Tuma—10970
WFeb 10 · 15:30M. Vorel—11119113L. Tuma—941191
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211LSep 2 · 14:00V. Toman1.671111113M. Vorel2.107570
L. Tuma10
WSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Husek2.0081191192L. Tuma1.73119115113WSep 4 · 15:00L. Tuma1.911111113K. Jirousek1.809950LSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113LSep 2 · 16:58L. Tuma2.20811100V. Toman1.611113123LSep 2 · 15:00V. Toman1.73611117113L. Tuma2.0011941172WSep 2 · 13:30P. Hlina2.25991461L. Tuma1.57111112113WAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180WAug 27 · 16:00L. Tuma1.6791112113J. Jnr2.101131081WAug 27 · 14:30J. Blazek2.75961181L. Tuma1.4011117113
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