TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061055
Played Sep 2Finished
Vojtech Toman
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Martin Vorel
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeVojtech Toman to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Toman above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Vojtech Toman at 57.4%
52 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Toman 5–2 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Toman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Toman
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Toman 1508 vs Vorel 1456
Toman
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Toman 40% vs Vorel 80%
Vorel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Toman 30% vs Vorel 70%
Vorel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Toman +2 · Vorel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Toman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsToman 1.67 / Vorel 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Toman)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061055
Toman1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 22 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Vorel2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 82 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back30% 27 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeToman5wins
AwayVorel2wins
6 of 7 to a deciderToman leads 5–2, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTomann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVorel40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Toman2Vorel5n = 7Vorel took 5 of 7
S2Toman4Vorel3n = 7Toman took 4 of 7
S3Toman4Vorel3n = 7Toman took 4 of 7
S4Toman5Vorel2n = 7Toman took 5 of 7
S5Toman4Vorel2n = 6Toman took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricTomanVorelT − VBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match45.345.1+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomanVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 85 vs 414 / 79448.2%52.1%41 / 85 vs 414 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TomanToman 1.67/Vorel 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Toman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Toman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 30 · 20:43V. Toman—111146113M. Vorel—96111132
WJul 30 · 19:45V. Toman—61111113M. Vorel—117581
WJun 28 · 20:17V. Toman—117511113M. Vorel—71111852
LJun 28 · 19:15V. Toman—811611102M. Vorel—118119123
LNov 9 · 19:00V. Toman—91111862M. Vorel—118711113
WJan 12 · 13:50V. Toman—741911143M. Vorel—1111178122
WJan 12 · 10:45V. Toman—1021111103M. Vorel—12118682
V. Toman10
WSep 2 · 16:58L. Tuma2.20811100V. Toman1.611113123WSep 2 · 15:30P. Hlina2.00111178132V. Toman1.73861111153WSep 2 · 15:00V. Toman1.73611117113L. Tuma2.0011941172WAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133WAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860LAug 26 · 14:30V. Toman1.677111291P. Abraham2.10111310113LAug 19 · 20:29L. Krasl1.40991311113V. Toman2.75111111872LAug 19 · 19:30V. Toman1.834970L. Krasl1.831111113WAug 19 · 18:30V. Toman1.8312119113J. Marhol1.831081171LAug 19 · 17:30V. Toman1.671310981K. Farsky2.10111211113
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211
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