TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073049
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111181191012115
Jaroslav Puk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 94 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 28–36 Jaroslav Puk Martin Vorel has won 28 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Puk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-36 in 64
Puk
Wrong
gap of 8 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1414 vs Puk 1396
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 20% vs Puk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 50% vs Puk 20%
Vorel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -4 · Puk +1
Vorel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Puk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Puk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.83 / Puk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Puk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073049
Vorel1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Puk1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel5wins
AwayPuk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel75%3 of 4
AwayPuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel4Puk6n = 10Puk took 6 of 10
S2Vorel6Puk4n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Vorel3Puk7n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S4Vorel4Puk3n = 7Vorel took 4 of 7
S5Vorel3Puk2n = 5Vorel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelPukV − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.7+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelPukBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 790 vs 155 / 32051.8%48.4%409 / 790 vs 155 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukVorel 1.83/Puk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 09:23M. Vorel—611711112J. Puk—119116133
WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel—6111110113J. Puk—11891252
WAug 31 · 06:00M. Vorel—118611113J. Puk—61111822
WAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel—8111113113J. Puk—11431582
WAug 25 · 08:00M. Vorel—11116123J. Puk—4611101
LAug 19 · 08:58M. Vorel—1011781J. Puk—12611113
LAug 19 · 08:00M. Vorel—7660J. Puk—1111113
WJul 21 · 12:38M. Vorel—1111113J. Puk—1690
LJul 21 · 09:30M. Vorel—119120J. Puk—1311143
LMay 15 · 10:30M. Vorel—116911102J. Puk—411117123
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211LSep 2 · 14:00V. Toman1.671111113M. Vorel2.107570
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113LAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk1.804611101M. Vorel1.9111116123LAug 25 · 06:30P. Hlina1.6711116113J. Puk2.10661191
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