TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008419
Played Aug 25Finished
Jaroslav Puk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4116111161012––
Martin Vorel
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 71 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 55.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 35–24 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 24 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Puk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-24 in 59
Puk
Wrong
gap of 11 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1422 vs Vorel 1354
Puk
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 40% vs Vorel 20%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 50% vs Vorel 30%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk -3 · Vorel -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Puk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.80 / Vorel 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Puk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13008419
Puk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 31 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Vorel1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePuk6wins
AwayVorel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk100%4 of 4
AwayVorel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S2Puk4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Puk7Vorel3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S4Puk3Vorel2n = 5Puk took 3 of 5
S5Puk2Vorel1n = 3Puk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPukVorelP − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.636.1−0.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 316 vs 413 / 80049.1%51.6%155 / 316 vs 413 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukPuk 1.80/Vorel 1.91
Miss
What we said
55.5%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 08:58J. Puk—12611113M. Vorel—1011781
WAug 19 · 08:00J. Puk—1111113M. Vorel—7660
LJul 21 · 12:38J. Puk—1690M. Vorel—1111113
WJul 21 · 09:30J. Puk—1311143M. Vorel—119120
WMay 15 · 10:30J. Puk—411117123M. Vorel—116911102
WMay 12 · 12:59J. Puk—81113113M. Vorel—1161161
LMay 12 · 12:00J. Puk—9670M. Vorel—1111113
LApr 30 · 07:30J. Puk—59110M. Vorel—1111133
LApr 2 · 06:30J. Puk—109111172M. Vorel—121138113
WMar 25 · 12:00J. Puk—137114113M. Vorel—111181162
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113LAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582LAug 25 · 06:30P. Hlina1.6711116113J. Puk2.10661191
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113WAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113WAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582
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