TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13011490
Played Aug 25Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111141131315118
Jaroslav Puk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 25–35 Jaroslav Puk Martin Vorel has won 25 of their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Puk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Puk form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.73 / Puk 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Puk)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13011490
Vorel1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 97 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it77% 72 of 93
Puk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 38 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel5wins
AwayPuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel71.4%5 of 7
AwayPuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel7Puk3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S2Vorel6Puk4n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Vorel3Puk7n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S4Vorel2Puk3n = 5Puk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelPukV − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.1+1.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelPukBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 801 vs 154 / 31651.7%48.7%414 / 801 vs 154 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukVorel 1.73/Puk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 08:00M. Vorel—11116123J. Puk—4611101
LAug 19 · 08:58M. Vorel—1011781J. Puk—12611113
LAug 19 · 08:00M. Vorel—7660J. Puk—1111113
WJul 21 · 12:38M. Vorel—1111113J. Puk—1690
LJul 21 · 09:30M. Vorel—119120J. Puk—1311143
LMay 15 · 10:30M. Vorel—116911102J. Puk—411117123
LMay 12 · 12:59M. Vorel—1161161J. Puk—81113113
WMay 12 · 12:00M. Vorel—1111113J. Puk—9670
WApr 30 · 07:30M. Vorel—1111133J. Puk—59110
WApr 2 · 06:30M. Vorel—121138113J. Puk—109111172
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk1.804611101M. Vorel1.9111116123LAug 25 · 06:30P. Hlina1.6711116113J. Puk2.10661191
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