TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073008
Played Sep 4Finished
Jaroslav Puk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118141611910121416
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 121 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 56.2%
121 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 19–14 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Puk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Puk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1396 vs Moulis 1335
Puk
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 40% vs Moulis 20%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 20% vs Moulis 50%
Moulis
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk +1 · Moulis -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Puk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 1.67 / Moulis 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Puk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073008
Puk1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 27 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Moulis2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePuk8wins
AwayMoulis2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPuk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayMoulis33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk7Moulis3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S2Puk5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S3Puk4Moulis6n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S4Puk9Moulis1n = 10Puk took 9 of 10
S5Puk2Moulis1n = 3Puk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPukMoulisP − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match47.443.0+4.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 318 vs 198 / 43548.4%45.5%154 / 318 vs 198 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukPuk 1.67/Moulis 2.10
Miss
What we said
57%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 09:03J. Puk—11331011113P. Moulis—93512882
WAug 11 · 06:30J. Puk—119511113P. Moulis—61111582
LAug 4 · 06:00J. Puk—2281011112P. Moulis—2011128133
WApr 14 · 12:00J. Puk—13811113P. Moulis—1111491
WMar 5 · 13:34J. Puk—41111113P. Moulis—117991
WMar 5 · 12:00J. Puk—111112133P. Moulis—7914111
WJan 15 · 08:00J. Puk—71111113P. Moulis—115571
WDec 12 · 11:45J. Puk—111111113P. Moulis—691391
LNov 26 · 10:10J. Puk—1081171P. Moulis—12118113
WNov 26 · 09:00J. Puk—11119113P. Moulis—791171
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113LAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk1.804611101M. Vorel1.9111116123LAug 25 · 06:30P. Hlina1.6711116113J. Puk2.10661191
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381
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