TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043886
Played Aug 30Finished
Pavel Moulis
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911113118––
Jan Seeman
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jan Seeman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 64.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 10–3 Jan Seeman Jan Seeman has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Moulis
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moulis 1380 vs Seeman 1286
Moulis
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moulis 60% vs Seeman 40%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moulis 60% vs Seeman 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moulis +2 · Seeman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Moulis) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.44 / Seeman 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Moulis)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043886
Moulis1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 28 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Seeman2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 32 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis7wins
AwaySeeman3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoulis leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis85.7%6 of 7
AwaySeeman66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis7Seeman3n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S2Moulis6Seeman4n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S3Moulis7Seeman3n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S4Moulis6Seeman2n = 8Moulis took 6 of 8
S5Moulis1Seeman3n = 4Seeman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisSeemanM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.536.6+6.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisSeemanBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 437 vs 134 / 28146.2%47.7%202 / 437 vs 134 / 281Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMoulis 1.44/Seeman 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis—11911113J. Seeman—811381
WAug 29 · 20:34P. Moulis—51111113J. Seeman—118481
WAug 29 · 19:00P. Moulis—1111113J. Seeman—5580
WAug 13 · 05:30P. Moulis—1171113113J. Seeman—61171572
WAug 11 · 08:00P. Moulis—11119123J. Seeman—5711101
LAug 4 · 07:00P. Moulis—76111172J. Seeman—111128113
LAug 1 · 19:00P. Moulis—911131892J. Seeman—1191516113
WJul 24 · 17:30P. Moulis—11118113J. Seeman—791121
LJul 23 · 10:30P. Moulis—119113112J. Seeman—711411133
WJun 19 · 10:30P. Moulis—1111163J. Seeman—59140
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113
J. Seeman10
WSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171WSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940WSep 3 · 09:30J. Blazek2.0092111162J. Seeman1.73111199113LAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113WAug 31 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.57713591J. Seeman2.25111111113WAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113WAug 30 · 12:39J. Seeman1.57691111113V. Kucala2.2511116582LAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122
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