TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049629
Played Aug 31Finished
David Sabuka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111177111113––
Jan Seeman
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Jan Seeman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 — our read held David Sabuka at 57.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 6–3 Jan Seeman Jan Seeman has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sabuka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Sabuka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1323 vs Seeman 1307
Sabuka
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 60% vs Seeman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 80% vs Seeman 50%
Sabuka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +1 · Seeman +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sabuka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Seeman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.67 / Seeman 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sabuka)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049629
Sabuka1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 61 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 43 of 56
Seeman2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 32 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSabuka6wins
AwaySeeman3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSabuka leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabuka80%4 of 5
AwaySeeman50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka5Seeman4n = 9Sabuka took 5 of 9
S2Sabuka4Seeman5n = 9Seeman took 5 of 9
S3Sabuka5Seeman4n = 9Sabuka took 5 of 9
S4Sabuka3Seeman6n = 9Seeman took 6 of 9
S5Sabuka4Seeman0n = 4Sabuka took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSabukaSeemanSabuka − SeemanBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match42.942.7+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaSeemanBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 524 vs 136 / 28346.4%48.1%243 / 524 vs 136 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSabuka 1.67/Seeman 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Seeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka—8117111J. Seeman—11711133
WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka—111175143J. Seeman—871111122
WAug 15 · 15:00D. Sabuka—13711973J. Seeman—111151132
LAug 1 · 20:29D. Sabuka—1111551J. Seeman—13811113
WAug 1 · 18:00D. Sabuka—61811113J. Seeman—1116881
WJul 25 · 20:24D. Sabuka—591115113J. Seeman—111131362
WJul 25 · 17:15D. Sabuka—11611113J. Seeman—511961
LJul 23 · 12:33D. Sabuka—1178101J. Seeman—91111123
WJul 23 · 09:30D. Sabuka—1161210113J. Seeman—911101262
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122WAug 30 · 10:30V. Kucala1.83112681D. Sabuka1.8391111113
J. Seeman10
WSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171WSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940WSep 3 · 09:30J. Blazek2.0092111162J. Seeman1.73111199113LAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113WAug 31 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.57713591J. Seeman2.25111111113WAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113WAug 30 · 12:39J. Seeman1.57691111113V. Kucala2.2511116582LAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122LAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381
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