TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055055
Played Sep 1Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1184111191311––
David Sabuka
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 82.2% is still 82.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
82.2%
82.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held David Sabuka at 82.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 1–3 David Sabuka Miroslav Cervenka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Sabuka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Sabuka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1182 vs Sabuka 1317
Sabuka
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 20% vs Sabuka 40%
Sabuka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 30% vs Sabuka 60%
Sabuka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka +1 · Sabuka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Sabuka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (40%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 4.50 / Sabuka 1.17
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Sabuka)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13055055
Cervenka4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 30 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Sabuka1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 62 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 44 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCervenka1wins
AwaySabuka3wins
Sabuka leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCervenkan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySabuka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cervenka1Sabuka3n = 4Sabuka took 3 of 4
S2Cervenka2Sabuka2n = 4split evenly
S3Cervenka1Sabuka3n = 4Sabuka took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricCervenkaSabukaC − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match25.233.2−8.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 222 vs 244 / 52539.2%46.5%87 / 222 vs 244 / 525Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaCervenka 4.50/Sabuka 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.2%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cervenka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 27 · 11:30M. Cervenka—7140D. Sabuka—1111113
LAug 5 · 07:00M. Cervenka—812861D. Sabuka—111011113
WAug 2 · 08:38M. Cervenka—1211133D. Sabuka—103110
LAug 2 · 07:30M. Cervenka—7930D. Sabuka—1111113
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122WAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140
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