TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427750
Played Aug 14Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611811711––
Julius Krejcik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:47 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJulius Krejcik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · Julius Krejcik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 72 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Julius Krejcik at 58.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 0–2 Julius Krejcik Miroslav Cervenka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krejcik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1205 vs Krejcik 1403
Krejcik
Correct
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 40% vs Krejcik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 40% vs Krejcik 60%
Krejcik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka -2 · Krejcik -3
Krejcik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krejcik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejcik form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 2.25 / Krejcik 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Krejcik)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12427750
Cervenka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Krejcik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 15 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeCervenka0wins
AwayKrejcik2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKrejcik leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricCervenkaKrejcikC − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.044.5−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaKrejcikBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 218 vs 17 / 2739.5%63%86 / 218 vs 17 / 27Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejcikCervenka 2.25/Krejcik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Krejcik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krejcik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 14 · 08:33M. Cervenka—111211682J. Krejcik—614711113
LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka—116871J. Krejcik—71111113
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
J. Krejcik10
LSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113LSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 11:00J. Krejcik2.001111113J. Seeman1.733940WSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113LAug 31 · 12:00J. Krejcik1.57713591J. Seeman2.25111111113WAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100WAug 28 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.6111511113J. Jnr2.20711981WAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682
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