TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12427720
Played Aug 14Finished
Miroslav Cervenka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Martin Holub
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Cervenka above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 56.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cervenka 11–17 Martin Holub Miroslav Cervenka has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-17 in 28
Holub
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cervenka 1205 vs Holub 1374
Holub
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cervenka 40% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cervenka 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cervenka -1 · Holub +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCervenka 2.10 / Holub 1.67
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Holub)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12427720
Cervenka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Holub1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 102 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCervenka4wins
AwayHolub6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCervenka100%3 of 3
AwayHolub85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cervenka3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Cervenka6Holub4n = 10Cervenka took 6 of 10
S3Cervenka6Holub4n = 10Cervenka took 6 of 10
S4Cervenka4Holub3n = 7Cervenka took 4 of 7
S5Cervenka0Holub3n = 3Holub took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCervenkaHolubC − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.5−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCervenkaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 218 vs 363 / 67039.5%54.2%86 / 218 vs 363 / 670Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubCervenka 2.10/Holub 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka—8680M. Holub—1111113
WAug 2 · 05:30M. Cervenka—11127113M. Holub—7101141
LJul 20 · 17:03M. Cervenka—7131341M. Holub—111115113
WJul 20 · 16:00M. Cervenka—131111113M. Holub—157891
LJun 25 · 06:45M. Cervenka—86100M. Holub—1111123
LJun 3 · 10:30M. Cervenka—29111152M. Holub—111168113
LMay 29 · 09:30M. Cervenka—311117112M. Holub—117711133
LMay 21 · 10:00M. Cervenka—111911832M. Holub—1317911113
WMay 19 · 05:30M. Cervenka—111312113M. Holub—6151071
WMay 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka—1111113M. Holub—7980
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
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