TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060800
Played Sep 2Finished
Martin Holub
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411117131111131210
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 103 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 66.3%
103 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 1–2 Pavel Moulis Martin Holub has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1412 vs Moulis 1345
Holub
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Moulis 60%
Moulis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Moulis 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Moulis -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Moulis) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.75 / Moulis 1.40
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Moulis)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13060800
Holub2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 68 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Moulis1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 31 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHolub1wins
AwayMoulis2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMoulis leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolubn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub0Moulis3n = 3Moulis took 3 of 3
S2Holub1Moulis2n = 3Moulis took 2 of 3
S3Holub2Moulis1n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHolubMoulisH − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match35.743.7−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 669 vs 201 / 43755.2%46%369 / 669 vs 201 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisHolub 2.75/Moulis 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub—4111311123P. Moulis—1171113102
LAug 28 · 12:59M. Holub—5480P. Moulis—1111113
LAug 28 · 11:00M. Holub—58111142P. Moulis—111176113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381
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