David Sabuka vs Pavel Moulis 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13047398

Played Aug 30Finished

David Sabuka

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

811811118115611

Pavel Moulis

Away

1.50

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 4

How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Pavel Moulis below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 11-5

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 90 set 5, 6-11

90 points played in total.

H2H David Sabuka 2–4 Pavel Moulis David Sabuka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 2–4Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Moulis)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Moulis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSabuka 2.50 / Moulis 1.50

Signal prob.36% / 65%

Edge (Moulis)+2.0pp

Setka Cup · #13047398

Sabuka2.50

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog27% won 29 of 106

Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 73

Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44

Moulis1.50

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite52% won 28 of 54

Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16

Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeSabuka2wins

AwayMoulis4wins

2 of 6 to a deciderMoulis leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSabukan = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayMoulis100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Sabuka2Moulis4n = 6Moulis took 4 of 6

S2Sabuka2Moulis4n = 6Moulis took 4 of 6

S3Sabuka4Moulis2n = 6Sabuka took 4 of 6

S4Sabuka1Moulis4n = 5Moulis took 4 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home117%

3–2Decider, home117%

2–3Decider, away117%

1–3Four sets, away233%

0–3Straight, away117%

These 6 meetings

MetricSabukaMoulisS − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.041.2−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSabukaMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 528 vs 201 / 43646.2%46.1%244 / 528 vs 201 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Moulis

Sabuka 2.50/Moulis 1.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

64.5%

Moulis · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Moulis won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record6

LAug 30 · 10:00D. Sabuka—91113782P. Moulis—1181111113

LAug 1 · 20:00D. Sabuka—15110P. Moulis—1111133

LJul 23 · 12:00D. Sabuka—411641P. Moulis—11911113

LJul 20 · 06:30D. Sabuka—681191P. Moulis—11118113

WApr 24 · 11:45D. Sabuka—115116113P. Moulis—81171172

WApr 21 · 11:00D. Sabuka—11812113P. Moulis—6111061

D. Sabuka10

WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940 LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122 WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113 LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111 WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113 LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141 LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133 WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100 WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122 WAug 30 · 10:30V. Kucala1.83112681D. Sabuka1.8391111113

P. Moulis10

LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113 WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163 LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531 LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151 WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472 LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102 LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151 LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791 WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113 WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381

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