TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073016
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811113115113––
Pavel Moulis
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 63 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Martin Vorel at 74.4%
63 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 19–6 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-6 in 25
Vorel
Correct
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1414 vs Moulis 1336
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 20% vs Moulis 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 50% vs Moulis 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel +1 · Moulis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Vorel) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.36 / Moulis 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Vorel)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13073016
Vorel1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 98
Moulis3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 18 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel8wins
AwayMoulis2wins
Vorel leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel100%7 of 7
AwayMoulis66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel7Moulis3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S2Vorel6Moulis4n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Vorel4Moulis6n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S4Vorel8Moulis1n = 9Vorel took 8 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home880%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelMoulisV − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.832.0+6.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 790 vs 199 / 43751.8%45.5%409 / 790 vs 199 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.36/Moulis 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel—81111113P. Moulis—113531
WJan 27 · 09:00M. Vorel—11119113P. Moulis—681181
WJan 26 · 08:30M. Vorel—11911113P. Moulis—511961
WJan 12 · 10:30M. Vorel—11119113P. Moulis—671171
WDec 12 · 12:15M. Vorel—11119103P. Moulis—971171
LDec 1 · 11:00M. Vorel—76100P. Moulis—1111123
WNov 25 · 08:00M. Vorel—11911123P. Moulis—9115101
WNov 20 · 13:00M. Vorel—11911113P. Moulis—411881
WAug 29 · 11:30M. Vorel—11117113P. Moulis—261191
LAug 22 · 12:34M. Vorel—711951P. Moulis—11811113
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211LSep 2 · 14:00V. Toman1.671111113M. Vorel2.107570
P. Moulis10
LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113WAug 30 · 11:00P. Moulis1.4411911113J. Seeman2.63811381
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