TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089176
Played Sep 7Finished
Oleh Plyska
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11551112141311119
Martin Vorel
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingOleh Plyska above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Vorel at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Plyska 52–55 Martin Vorel Oleh Plyska has won 52 of their 107 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vorel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-55 in 107
Vorel
Wrong
gap of 3 in 107, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plyska 1518 vs Vorel 1393
Plyska
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plyska 40% vs Vorel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plyska 60% vs Vorel 30%
Plyska
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plyska -2 · Vorel -3
Vorel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlyska 2.10 / Vorel 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorel)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13089176
Plyska2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 68 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Vorel1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlyska3wins
AwayVorel7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlyskan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVorel62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plyska2Vorel8n = 10Vorel took 8 of 10
S2Plyska4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Plyska7Vorel3n = 10Plyska took 7 of 10
S4Plyska2Vorel6n = 8Vorel took 6 of 8
S5Plyska2Vorel3n = 5Vorel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlyskaVorelP − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.6−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlyskaVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 688 vs 409 / 79249.3%51.6%339 / 688 vs 409 / 792Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelPlyska 2.10/Vorel 1.67
Miss
What we said
54%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plyska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 13:03O. Plyska—571191M. Vorel—11116113
WJul 29 · 11:00O. Plyska—71111113M. Vorel—117981
LJul 27 · 12:00O. Plyska—412881M. Vorel—111011113
LJul 21 · 11:00O. Plyska—11811632M. Vorel—311711113
LJul 3 · 05:30O. Plyska—6760M. Vorel—1111113
WJun 30 · 10:45O. Plyska—711117113M. Vorel—11781162
LJun 18 · 08:33O. Plyska—101111792M. Vorel—128411113
WJun 18 · 07:30O. Plyska—781111113M. Vorel—11119462
LJun 16 · 06:00O. Plyska—11911962M. Vorel—711911113
LMay 13 · 10:15O. Plyska—81190M. Vorel—1113103
O. Plyska10
LSep 7 · 06:30P. Hlina1.831241211113O. Plyska1.83141110962LSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111113O. Plyska1.80115971WSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122WSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123LSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143WSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 07:00O. Plyska2.1011611113T. Bertho1.67911881WSep 2 · 06:00O. Plyska1.9111118113J. Hanacek1.80641131
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211LSep 2 · 14:00V. Toman1.671111113M. Vorel2.107570
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