TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088895
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Mejzlik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115119117––
Oleh Plyska
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Plyska to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Mejzlik above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Oleh Plyska at 55.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mejzlik 4–6 Oleh Plyska Jakub Mejzlik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Plyska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Plyska
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mejzlik 1425 vs Plyska 1518
Plyska
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mejzlik 40% vs Plyska 60%
Plyska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mejzlik 50% vs Plyska 70%
Plyska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mejzlik -2 · Plyska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Plyska) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mejzlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMejzlik 1.91 / Plyska 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Plyska)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13088895
Mejzlik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 38 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Plyska1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 99 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it63% 64 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMejzlik4wins
AwayPlyska6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPlyska leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMejzlik60%3 of 5
AwayPlyska80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mejzlik5Plyska5n = 10split evenly
S2Mejzlik6Plyska4n = 10Mejzlik took 6 of 10
S3Mejzlik5Plyska5n = 10split evenly
S4Mejzlik3Plyska5n = 8Plyska took 5 of 8
S5Mejzlik2Plyska4n = 6Plyska took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMejzlikPlyskaM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.341.4−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMejzlikPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 294 vs 339 / 68848%49.3%141 / 294 vs 339 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlyskaMejzlik 1.91/Plyska 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Plyska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mejzlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik—91111113O. Plyska—115971
LAug 17 · 09:03J. Mejzlik—11911682O. Plyska—811811113
LAug 17 · 06:30J. Mejzlik—312111192O. Plyska—111495113
WAug 3 · 07:30J. Mejzlik—1111118113O. Plyska—41391122
WJul 26 · 07:00J. Mejzlik—111183113O. Plyska—76111192
LJun 6 · 16:00J. Mejzlik—13117442O. Plyska—1151111113
LJun 5 · 06:15J. Mejzlik—9970O. Plyska—1111113
LMay 27 · 05:30J. Mejzlik—91381192O. Plyska—1111118113
WMay 20 · 08:39J. Mejzlik—1111113O. Plyska—9970
LMay 20 · 07:30J. Mejzlik—511381O. Plyska—11811113
J. Mejzlik10
WSep 7 · 07:30P. Hlina1.5311118652J. Mejzlik2.38681111113WSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LAug 25 · 08:33J. Mejzlik1.917750P. Hlina1.801111113LAug 25 · 07:30P. Hlina2.20911119133J. Mejzlik1.61115611112WAug 25 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.3811911113M. Vorel1.53411761WAug 25 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.738111111123J. Puk2.00116138102LAug 19 · 08:37J. Mejzlik3.759790L. Tuma1.251111113WAug 19 · 07:30L. Tuma2.2511711101J. Mejzlik1.5713119123LAug 19 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.209111061M. Vorel1.6111312113WAug 19 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.73911911113J. Puk2.0011711882
O. Plyska10
WSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 06:30P. Hlina1.831241211113O. Plyska1.83141110962WSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122WSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123LSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143WSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 07:00O. Plyska2.1011611113T. Bertho1.67911881WSep 2 · 06:00O. Plyska1.9111118113J. Hanacek1.80641131
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