TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456666
Played Aug 19Finished
Jakub Mejzlik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117911118118
Jaroslav Puk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Mejzlik above · Jaroslav Puk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mejzlik 7–5 Jaroslav Puk Jaroslav Puk has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mejzlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Mejzlik
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mejzlik 1385 vs Puk 1426
Puk
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mejzlik 40% vs Puk 60%
Puk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mejzlik 20% vs Puk 60%
Puk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mejzlik -1 · Puk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Puk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mejzlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMejzlik 1.73 / Puk 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Puk)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #12456666
Mejzlik1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 49 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Puk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 35 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMejzlik6wins
AwayPuk4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMejzlik leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMejzlik66.7%4 of 6
AwayPuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mejzlik6Puk4n = 10Mejzlik took 6 of 10
S2Mejzlik6Puk4n = 10Mejzlik took 6 of 10
S3Mejzlik6Puk4n = 10Mejzlik took 6 of 10
S4Mejzlik4Puk5n = 9Puk took 5 of 9
S5Mejzlik3Puk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMejzlikPukM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.138.7+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMejzlikPukBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 307 vs 155 / 31648.2%49.1%148 / 307 vs 155 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PukMejzlik 1.73/Puk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Puk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mejzlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 06:00J. Mejzlik—911911113J. Puk—11711882
WAug 17 · 07:30J. Mejzlik—7131211113J. Puk—111510762
LAug 3 · 05:30J. Mejzlik—101111942J. Puk—125611113
LJul 14 · 07:15J. Mejzlik—111161152J. Puk—481113113
LJul 6 · 09:04J. Mejzlik—12711992J. Puk—1011511113
WJul 6 · 05:58J. Mejzlik—1181110113J. Puk—61181292
LMay 27 · 08:39J. Mejzlik—3117111J. Puk—11411133
WMay 27 · 06:30J. Mejzlik—11611113J. Puk—711521
WMay 20 · 07:00J. Mejzlik—1111113J. Puk—2670
WMay 15 · 12:34J. Mejzlik—11111113J. Puk—641171
J. Mejzlik10
LSep 7 · 08:38J. Mejzlik2.1010111151P. Hlina1.6712313113WSep 7 · 07:30P. Hlina1.5311118652J. Mejzlik2.38681111113WSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982WSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111113O. Plyska1.80115971LAug 25 · 08:33J. Mejzlik1.917750P. Hlina1.801111113LAug 25 · 07:30P. Hlina2.20911119133J. Mejzlik1.61115611112WAug 25 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.3811911113M. Vorel1.53411761WAug 25 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.738111111123J. Puk2.00116138102LAug 19 · 08:37J. Mejzlik3.759790L. Tuma1.251111113WAug 19 · 07:30L. Tuma2.2511711101J. Mejzlik1.5713119123
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113LAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582LAug 25 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.738111111123J. Puk2.00116138102
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