TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049309
Played Aug 31Finished
Jaroslav Puk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
15178111012––––
Tadeas Bertho
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTadeas Bertho to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Tadeas Bertho below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 73 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Tadeas Bertho at 55.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 17–20 Tadeas Bertho Jaroslav Puk has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bertho
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Bertho
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1379 vs Bertho 1477
Bertho
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 0% vs Bertho 40%
Bertho
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 40% vs Bertho 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk -5 · Bertho +1
Puk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bertho) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertho form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 2.10 / Bertho 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Bertho)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049309
Puk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Bertho1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 80 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it80% 62 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePuk4wins
AwayBertho6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBertho leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk75%3 of 4
AwayBertho83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk4Bertho6n = 10Bertho took 6 of 10
S2Puk7Bertho3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S3Puk5Bertho5n = 10split evenly
S4Puk4Bertho3n = 7Puk took 4 of 7
S5Puk0Bertho3n = 3Bertho took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPukBerthoP − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.138.4−1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukBerthoBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 316 vs 345 / 65148.4%53%153 / 316 vs 345 / 651Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerthoPuk 2.10/Bertho 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Bertho · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bertho won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 08:34J. Puk—11711113T. Bertho—511791
LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk—158100T. Bertho—1711123
LMay 4 · 05:30J. Puk—11112352T. Bertho—491111113
LApr 30 · 08:44J. Puk—1011101162T. Bertho—127125113
WApr 30 · 07:00J. Puk—1211113T. Bertho—10890
LApr 24 · 07:00J. Puk—881111112T. Bertho—111175133
WApr 10 · 11:30J. Puk—1111113T. Bertho—9870
LNov 26 · 06:30J. Puk—711491T. Bertho—11711113
WOct 17 · 06:45J. Puk—51311113T. Bertho—1111971
LOct 9 · 08:35J. Puk—512681T. Bertho—111011113
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk2.0061111822M. Vorel1.73118611113LAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk1.804611101M. Vorel1.9111116123LAug 25 · 06:30P. Hlina1.6711116113J. Puk2.10661191
T. Bertho10
LSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162LSep 2 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.7511116113T. Bertho1.40981161LSep 2 · 07:00O. Plyska2.1011611113T. Bertho1.67911881WSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113WSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113LAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113
Upcoming Matches
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T. Bertho
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