TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084180
Played Sep 6Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118911119911
Tadeas Bertho
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTadeas Bertho to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Tadeas Bertho below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Tadeas Bertho at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 7–14 Tadeas Bertho Stepan Kalensky has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bertho
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Bertho
Correct
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1596 vs Bertho 1458
Kalensky
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 20% vs Bertho 40%
Bertho
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 50% vs Bertho 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky -2 · Bertho -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalensky) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bertho form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.83 / Bertho 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kalensky)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084180
Kalensky1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Bertho1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalensky4wins
AwayBertho6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBertho leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky75%3 of 4
AwayBertho83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky4Bertho6n = 10Bertho took 6 of 10
S2Kalensky4Bertho6n = 10Bertho took 6 of 10
S3Kalensky4Bertho6n = 10Bertho took 6 of 10
S4Kalensky3Bertho5n = 8Bertho took 5 of 8
S5Kalensky2Bertho1n = 3Kalensky took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenskyBerthoK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.1−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyBerthoBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 522 vs 340 / 64355%52.9%287 / 522 vs 340 / 643Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKalensky 1.83/Bertho 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bertho won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 16:15S. Kalensky—1311883T. Bertho—1181161
LAug 30 · 13:15S. Kalensky—117891T. Bertho—81111113
LJul 5 · 18:30S. Kalensky—9880T. Bertho—1111113
LJun 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky—78111182T. Bertho—111179113
LJun 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky—911791T. Bertho—11711113
LJun 7 · 19:00S. Kalensky—61260T. Bertho—1114113
WMay 3 · 18:00S. Kalensky—119116113T. Bertho—71181162
WApr 23 · 20:00S. Kalensky—12711113T. Bertho—1011721
WMar 28 · 17:00S. Kalensky—9111111113T. Bertho—11681352
LFeb 9 · 19:00S. Kalensky—5111071T. Bertho—11612113
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113
T. Bertho10
LSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990LSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162LSep 2 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.7511116113T. Bertho1.40981161LSep 2 · 07:00O. Plyska2.1011611113T. Bertho1.67911881WSep 2 · 05:30M. Vana1.83881181T. Bertho1.8311118113WSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113WSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450
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