TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084009
Played Sep 6Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111151181214
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJachym Juppa to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 100 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Jachym Juppa at 57.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 2–6 Jachym Juppa Stepan Kalensky has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Juppa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Juppa
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1593 vs Juppa 1518
Kalensky
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 20% vs Juppa 60%
Juppa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 60% vs Juppa 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky -1 · Juppa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Juppa) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 2.25 / Juppa 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Juppa)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13084009
Kalensky2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 46 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Juppa1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 80 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it68% 65 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKalensky2wins
AwayJuppa6wins
Juppa leads 6–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky50%2 of 4
AwayJuppa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky4Juppa4n = 8split evenly
S2Kalensky2Juppa6n = 8Juppa took 6 of 8
S3Kalensky3Juppa5n = 8Juppa took 5 of 8
S4Kalensky1Juppa4n = 5Juppa took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricKalenskyJuppaK − JBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match31.935.2−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 521 vs 450 / 86155.1%52.3%287 / 521 vs 450 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuppaKalensky 2.25/Juppa 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Juppa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 5 · 08:59S. Kalensky—1191671J. Juppa—71118113
LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky—741181J. Juppa—11117113
WSep 1 · 20:00S. Kalensky—11115113J. Juppa—421181
LJul 7 · 18:45S. Kalensky—88130J. Juppa—1111153
WMay 9 · 16:49S. Kalensky—1111113J. Juppa—7590
LMay 9 · 13:15S. Kalensky—6950J. Juppa—1111113
LMay 1 · 17:45S. Kalensky—761171J. Juppa—11116113
LJul 13 · 20:00S. Kalensky—1111451J. Juppa—61311103
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113
J. Juppa10
LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250LSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172WSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113WSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113
Upcoming Matches
S. Kalensky
J. Juppa
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.