TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079178
Played Sep 5Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210112811117
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Chadima to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 92 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Chadima at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 26–31 Jachym Juppa Ondrej Chadima has won 26 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:31What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Juppa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-31 in 57
Juppa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1551 vs Juppa 1523
Chadima
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 40% vs Juppa 100%
Juppa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 50% vs Juppa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima -1 · Juppa +5
Juppa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Juppa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 2.00 / Juppa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Juppa)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13079178
Chadima2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Juppa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 79 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it69% 64 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChadima6wins
AwayJuppa4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChadima leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadima66.7%2 of 3
AwayJuppa42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima3Juppa7n = 10Juppa took 7 of 10
S2Chadima6Juppa4n = 10Chadima took 6 of 10
S3Chadima3Juppa7n = 10Juppa took 7 of 10
S4Chadima4Juppa4n = 8split evenly
S5Chadima5Juppa0n = 5Chadima took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChadimaJuppaC − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.243.4−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 595 vs 451 / 86051.4%52.4%306 / 595 vs 451 / 860Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuppaChadima 2.00/Juppa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Juppa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chadima won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 13:30O. Chadima—711914113J. Juppa—116111292
LAug 12 · 20:13O. Chadima—911451J. Juppa—11911113
WAug 12 · 18:45O. Chadima—1461115113J. Juppa—161151382
LAug 12 · 09:30O. Chadima—11580J. Juppa—1311113
WAug 2 · 15:45O. Chadima—6111311113J. Juppa—117111362
WJul 31 · 13:30O. Chadima—1211113J. Juppa—10790
WJul 26 · 19:45O. Chadima—911611113J. Juppa—11511872
LJul 17 · 09:04O. Chadima—101112121J. Juppa—12614143
LJul 17 · 06:30O. Chadima—1479111J. Juppa—121111133
WJul 7 · 19:15O. Chadima—117811133J. Juppa—511118112
O. Chadima10
WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133WAug 31 · 17:45O. Chadima2.7513811113P. Orlowski1.401111971LAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141LAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103WAug 29 · 14:15P. Maly1.833711101O. Chadima1.8311115123
J. Juppa10
LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250WSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113WSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113
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