TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037771
Played Aug 29Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711310––––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-10
Point 49 set 3, 3-10 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 57.3%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 5–4 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:46What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lopata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1600 vs Lopata 1574
Chadima
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 80% vs Lopata 40%
Chadima
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 80% vs Lopata 60%
Chadima
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima +3 · Lopata -1
Chadima
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lopata) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 2.20 / Lopata 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Lopata)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037771
Chadima2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Lopata1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 25 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeChadima5wins
AwayLopata4wins
6 of 9 to a deciderChadima leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadiman = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLopata57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima2Lopata7n = 9Lopata took 7 of 9
S2Chadima7Lopata2n = 9Chadima took 7 of 9
S3Chadima4Lopata5n = 9Lopata took 5 of 9
S4Chadima3Lopata5n = 8Lopata took 5 of 8
S5Chadima4Lopata2n = 6Chadima took 4 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricChadimaLopataC − LBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match42.944.6−1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 600 vs 135 / 26251.8%51.5%311 / 600 vs 135 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataChadima 2.20/Lopata 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 2 · 13:15O. Chadima—41591282V. Lopata—11131110113
WMar 2 · 13:54O. Chadima—1212136113V. Lopata—1014111162
WMar 2 · 10:45O. Chadima—111157113V. Lopata—69111162
WFeb 17 · 11:30O. Chadima—5111112113V. Lopata—11551482
LJan 15 · 11:00O. Chadima—6118111V. Lopata—11911133
WJan 2 · 12:45O. Chadima—911118113V. Lopata—11951192
WDec 5 · 14:45O. Chadima—51111113V. Lopata—117981
LDec 1 · 13:55O. Chadima—7860V. Lopata—1111113
LDec 1 · 12:45O. Chadima—51291172V. Lopata—1110117113
O. Chadima10
WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133WAug 31 · 17:45O. Chadima2.7513811113P. Orlowski1.401111971LAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 14:15P. Maly1.833711101O. Chadima1.8311115123
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141LAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
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