TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044097
Played Aug 30Finished
Vit Herrmann
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1178111311117––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVit Herrmann above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 62.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vit Herrmann 2–2 Vladimir Lopata Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:16What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Herrmann 1635 vs Lopata 1571
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Herrmann 60% vs Lopata 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Herrmann 60% vs Lopata 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Herrmann -2 · Lopata +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Lopata) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHerrmann 2.50 / Lopata 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lopata)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13044097
Herrmann2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog49% won 58 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back32% 18 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Lopata1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 25 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHerrmann2wins
AwayLopata2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHerrmannn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLopata66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Herrmann1Lopata3n = 4Lopata took 3 of 4
S2Herrmann1Lopata3n = 4Lopata took 3 of 4
S3Herrmann4Lopata0n = 4Herrmann took 4 of 4
S4Herrmann3Lopata1n = 4Herrmann took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHerrmannLopataH − LBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match37.837.80.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHerrmannLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 438 vs 138 / 26748%51.7%210 / 438 vs 138 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataHerrmann 2.50/Lopata 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.3%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 30 · 16:47V. Herrmann—81311113V. Lopata—1111821
WAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann—11813113V. Lopata—7111171
LOct 27 · 18:05V. Herrmann—27111192V. Lopata—111137113
LOct 27 · 16:00V. Herrmann—331181V. Lopata—11117113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103LAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.