TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049634
Played Aug 31Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101214119115––
Vit Herrmann
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 84 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 66.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 5–1 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Orlowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1633 vs Herrmann 1638
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 60% vs Herrmann 80%
Herrmann
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 70% vs Herrmann 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +1 · Herrmann +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.44 / Herrmann 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Orlowski)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13049634
Orlowski1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 53 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Herrmann2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 62 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOrlowski5wins
AwayHerrmann1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderOrlowski leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski80%4 of 5
AwayHerrmannn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski5Herrmann1n = 6Orlowski took 5 of 6
S2Orlowski4Herrmann2n = 6Orlowski took 4 of 6
S3Orlowski4Herrmann2n = 6Orlowski took 4 of 6
S4Orlowski4Herrmann1n = 5Orlowski took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home467%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricOrlowskiHerrmannO − HBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match41.530.3+11.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 330 vs 211 / 43652.4%48.4%173 / 330 vs 211 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.44/Herrmann 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 17 · 17:45P. Orlowski—71111113V. Herrmann—119831
WJul 16 · 18:14P. Orlowski—11118113V. Herrmann—821151
LJan 14 · 20:00P. Orlowski—11119992V. Herrmann—971111113
WOct 8 · 20:31P. Orlowski—1211113V. Herrmann—10940
WOct 8 · 17:45P. Orlowski—111011113V. Herrmann—612621
WSep 24 · 18:30P. Orlowski—11911113V. Herrmann—511921
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113WAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133
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