TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084488
Played Sep 6Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711119118119––
Petr Orlowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 54.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 27–28 Petr Orlowski Roman Merkl has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Orlowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-28 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1586 vs Orlowski 1699
Orlowski
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 60% vs Orlowski 80%
Orlowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Orlowski 80%
Orlowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -1 · Orlowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.91 / Orlowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Orlowski)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084488
Merkl1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 96 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back18% 10 of 56
Orlowski1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 57 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 43 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl4wins
AwayOrlowski6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl40%2 of 5
AwayOrlowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Merkl5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Merkl6Orlowski4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Merkl4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklOrlowskiM − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.342.8−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 559 vs 181 / 34048.7%53.2%272 / 559 vs 181 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiMerkl 1.91/Orlowski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 08:34R. Merkl—9416111P. Orlowski—111114133
WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl—71111113P. Orlowski—119891
LAug 27 · 18:15R. Merkl—1510691P. Orlowski—131211113
WAug 22 · 08:33R. Merkl—11114113P. Orlowski—861171
LAug 22 · 06:30R. Merkl—11118752P. Orlowski—891111113
LAug 12 · 20:00R. Merkl—1158151P. Orlowski—81111173
LJul 13 · 21:03R. Merkl—741161P. Orlowski—11118113
WJul 13 · 20:00R. Merkl—91111133P. Orlowski—1186111
WJul 11 · 20:59R. Merkl—121011113P. Orlowski—1012871
LJul 11 · 17:30R. Merkl—61113812P. Orlowski—1181111113
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951WAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113
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