TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061274
Played Sep 2Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119116––––
Petr Maly
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Petr Maly at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 2–3 Petr Maly Roman Merkl has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maly
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1529 vs Maly 1501
Merkl
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 20% vs Maly 40%
Maly
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 30% vs Maly 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -1 · Maly -3
Maly
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maly)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.91 / Maly 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maly)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13061274
Merkl1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 94 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back37% 43 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 53
Maly1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 70 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMerkl2wins
AwayMaly3wins
4 of 5 to a deciderMaly leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaly50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl1Maly4n = 5Maly took 4 of 5
S2Merkl5Maly0n = 5Merkl took 5 of 5
S3Merkl4Maly1n = 5Merkl took 4 of 5
S4Merkl1Maly4n = 5Maly took 4 of 5
S5Merkl1Maly3n = 4Maly took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMerklMalyMerkl − MalyBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match47.444.4+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 568 vs 239 / 44548.1%53.7%273 / 568 vs 239 / 445Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalyMerkl 1.91/Maly 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 18 · 20:00R. Merkl—811115122P. Maly—117711143
WAug 14 · 18:30R. Merkl—811117113P. Maly—11961182
WJul 25 · 10:30R. Merkl—91111113P. Maly—119321
LJul 14 · 17:45R. Merkl—111198162P. Maly—751111183
LJul 9 · 19:15R. Merkl—71111972P. Maly—119811113
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113WSep 1 · 18:15P. Maly2.381111612113M. Hajek1.5386111482
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