TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061230
Played Sep 2Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3119111012––––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 26–26 Roman Merkl Dead even across their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-26 in 52
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1620 vs Merkl 1551
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Merkl 40%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Merkl 40%
Jnr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.80 / Merkl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13061230
Jnr1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 64 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58
Merkl1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 94 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back37% 43 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayMerkl5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr62.5%5 of 8
AwayMerkln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr8Merkl2n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S2Jnr6Merkl4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S3Jnr4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Jnr5Merkl4n = 9Jnr took 5 of 9
S5Jnr0Merkl3n = 3Merkl took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrMerklJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.642.4+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 430 vs 274 / 56951.9%48.2%223 / 430 vs 274 / 569Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.80/Merkl 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 09:00J. Jnr—1513791R. Merkl—131511113
WAug 15 · 06:00J. Jnr—1311113R. Merkl—11880
WAug 14 · 21:05J. Jnr—12411113R. Merkl—1011881
LAug 14 · 20:00J. Jnr—111112942R. Merkl—991411113
LAug 2 · 06:15J. Jnr—911111172R. Merkl—111393113
WJul 31 · 19:30J. Jnr—111613113R. Merkl—5141591
WJul 26 · 08:49J. Jnr—13118113R. Merkl—1191161
LJul 26 · 05:45J. Jnr—811291R. Merkl—11711113
WJul 25 · 13:09J. Jnr—111311153R. Merkl—8159131
LJul 25 · 12:00J. Jnr—11113592R. Merkl—651111113
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113WAug 20 · 18:15J. Jnr2.10591111113D. Brichacek1.6711118572
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
Upcoming Matches
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