TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008530
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119113411117
Tomas Hanke
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Tomas Hanke below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 82 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 19–18 Tomas Hanke Tomas Hanke has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hanke
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-18 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1616 vs Hanke 1558
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Hanke 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 60% vs Hanke 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Hanke +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanke form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Hanke 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13008530
Jnr1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Hanke1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayHanke4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%6 of 8
AwayHanken = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr8Hanke2n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S2Jnr5Hanke5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr3Hanke7n = 10Hanke took 7 of 10
S4Jnr2Hanke5n = 7Hanke took 5 of 7
S5Jnr4Hanke2n = 6Jnr took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrHankeJ − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.742.0+0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrHankeBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 425 vs 282 / 51751.8%54.6%220 / 425 vs 282 / 517Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.83/Hanke 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 06:00J. Jnr—11114982T. Hanke—371111113
WAug 14 · 19:00J. Jnr—111110103T. Hanke—741281
WAug 2 · 07:45J. Jnr—1111113T. Hanke—8690
WJul 17 · 20:28J. Jnr—1211118133T. Hanke—1013411112
LJul 17 · 18:00J. Jnr—11129772T. Hanke—9101111113
LJul 12 · 05:15J. Jnr—1210100T. Hanke—1412123
WJul 11 · 08:48J. Jnr—119512113T. Hanke—711111092
LJul 11 · 05:15J. Jnr—61450T. Hanke—1116113
WFeb 12 · 18:15J. Jnr—111188113T. Hanke—28111192
WJan 17 · 10:05J. Jnr—124159143T. Hanke—10111311122
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113WAug 20 · 18:15J. Jnr2.10591111113D. Brichacek1.6711118572
T. Hanke10
LSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113LSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181WSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172LSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113LSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113LAug 28 · 20:28D. Brichacek1.671111113T. Hanke2.105440LAug 28 · 19:30T. Hanke2.10611512122D. Brichacek1.671161110143
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