TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461979
Played Aug 20Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511911118115117
David Brichacek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · David Brichacek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held David Brichacek at 56.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 9–11 David Brichacek Jan Simecek Jnr has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Brichacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Brichacek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1584 vs Brichacek 1618
Brichacek
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Brichacek 20%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Brichacek 30%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Brichacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Brichacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brichacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.10 / Brichacek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Brichacek)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461979
Jnr2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog48% won 46 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Brichacek1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 100 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it79% 71 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayBrichacek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBrichacek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr40%2 of 5
AwayBrichacek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr5Brichacek5n = 10split evenly
S2Jnr7Brichacek3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S3Jnr2Brichacek8n = 10Brichacek took 8 of 10
S4Jnr2Brichacek6n = 8Brichacek took 6 of 8
S5Jnr1Brichacek2n = 3Brichacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrBrichacekJ − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.439.9−5.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrBrichacekBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 421 vs 136 / 26451.5%51.5%217 / 421 vs 136 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekJnr 2.10/Brichacek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 17:45J. Jnr—911621D. Brichacek—11911113
LAug 9 · 12:29J. Jnr—171160D. Brichacek—1913113
LAug 9 · 11:00J. Jnr—51281132D. Brichacek—1110119113
LAug 2 · 08:14J. Jnr—11117742D. Brichacek—691111113
LAug 2 · 05:45J. Jnr—116671D. Brichacek—41111113
WJul 31 · 17:30J. Jnr—11119113D. Brichacek—791141
WJul 30 · 18:30J. Jnr—1311113D. Brichacek—11650
LJul 17 · 19:30J. Jnr—118921D. Brichacek—41111113
LJun 26 · 17:15J. Jnr—111631D. Brichacek—11511113
WJun 5 · 18:15J. Jnr—312118113D. Brichacek—111091182
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr1.837101111133P. Orlowski1.83111259112WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113
D. Brichacek10
WSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113WSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113WSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113WSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250WSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113WSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.91115179113P. Hala1.80311151162
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