TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13008522
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Simecek Jnr
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71110121151191311
Petr Orlowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Simecek Jnr above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 100 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jan Simecek Jnr 25–20 Petr Orlowski Petr Orlowski has won 20 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Orlowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-20 in 45
Jnr
Correct
gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1622 vs Orlowski 1608
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Orlowski 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Orlowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +3 · Orlowski +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Orlowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.83 / Orlowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Orlowski)+4.5pp
Setka Cup · #13008522
Jnr1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Orlowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayOrlowski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr33.3%1 of 3
AwayOrlowski42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Orlowski7n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10
S2Jnr3Orlowski7n = 10Orlowski took 7 of 10
S3Jnr8Orlowski2n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S4Jnr5Orlowski4n = 9Jnr took 5 of 9
S5Jnr3Orlowski2n = 5Jnr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrOrlowskiJ − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.045.1−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 428 vs 169 / 32451.9%52.2%222 / 428 vs 169 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiJnr 1.83/Orlowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 20:20J. Jnr—671191P. Orlowski—11118113
WAug 25 · 19:15J. Jnr—7101111133P. Orlowski—111259112
WAug 20 · 20:23J. Jnr—9111111113P. Orlowski—11138792
LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr—91111582P. Orlowski—117911113
LAug 17 · 19:15J. Jnr—118791P. Orlowski—81111113
WAug 13 · 20:18J. Jnr—1991111113P. Orlowski—21116992
LAug 13 · 19:15J. Jnr—49111182P. Orlowski—111188113
WJul 20 · 17:45J. Jnr—1111173P. Orlowski—86150
LJul 16 · 20:13J. Jnr—225991P. Orlowski—201111113
WJul 16 · 19:13J. Jnr—111111123P. Orlowski—1377101
J. Jnr10
WSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123LSep 2 · 18:30J. Jnr2.63109111152M. Hajek1.44121199113WSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191WAug 25 · 18:15J. Jnr1.83411114113T. Hanke1.8311931172WAug 25 · 17:15J. Jnr1.5320127113P. Rucky2.3818101181WAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113LAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113WAug 20 · 18:15J. Jnr2.10591111113D. Brichacek1.6711118572
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WAug 25 · 20:20P. Orlowski1.5311118113J. Jnr2.38671191LAug 20 · 20:23P. Orlowski1.9111138792J. Jnr1.809111111113WAug 20 · 19:15J. Jnr1.7391111582P. Orlowski2.00117911113
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