TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13085431
Played Sep 6Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141161113117––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:28 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 56.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 4–5 Miroslav Hajek Petr Orlowski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:28What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1699 vs Hajek 1659
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Hajek 40%
Orlowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 70% vs Hajek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +1 · Hajek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 2.25 / Hajek 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Hajek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13085431
Orlowski2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 48 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back38% 15 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back15% 3 of 20
Hajek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 81 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOrlowski4wins
AwayHajek5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderHajek leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski75%3 of 4
AwayHajek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski4Hajek5n = 9Hajek took 5 of 9
S2Orlowski5Hajek4n = 9Orlowski took 5 of 9
S3Orlowski5Hajek4n = 9Orlowski took 5 of 9
S4Orlowski2Hajek6n = 8Hajek took 6 of 8
S5Orlowski2Hajek1n = 3Orlowski took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricOrlowskiHajekO − HBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.338.6−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 340 vs 367 / 67653.2%54.3%181 / 340 vs 367 / 676Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekOrlowski 2.25/Hajek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski—111111113M. Hajek—461371
LAug 17 · 20:43P. Orlowski—61111582M. Hajek—118911113
WAug 17 · 18:45P. Orlowski—111169113M. Hajek—35111172
LJan 7 · 20:00P. Orlowski—651171M. Hajek—11114113
WJul 8 · 17:15P. Orlowski—1111113M. Hajek—4690
WJun 4 · 18:15P. Orlowski—913811113M. Hajek—111111932
LJun 3 · 18:15P. Orlowski—115871M. Hajek—91111113
LMay 14 · 18:30P. Orlowski—261271M. Hajek—111110113
LMar 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski—9101291M. Hajek—111210113
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951WAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101WSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113LSep 4 · 11:45M. Hajek1.73116571Z. Vasatko2.0091111113LSep 4 · 10:15T. Hucko1.801113113M. Hajek1.9191170
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