TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084139
Played Sep 6Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111416910––––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 9-10
Point 65 set 3, 9-10 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 59.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 4–5 Miroslav Hajek Adam Pavlik has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1602 vs Hajek 1657
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 20% vs Hajek 40%
Hajek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 60% vs Hajek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -3 · Hajek -1
Pavlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.25 / Hajek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hajek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084139
Pavlik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 42 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Hajek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 61 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePavlik4wins
AwayHajek5wins
5 of 9 to a deciderHajek leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik66.7%2 of 3
AwayHajek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik3Hajek6n = 9Hajek took 6 of 9
S2Pavlik4Hajek5n = 9Hajek took 5 of 9
S3Pavlik7Hajek2n = 9Pavlik took 7 of 9
S4Pavlik4Hajek5n = 9Hajek took 5 of 9
S5Pavlik2Hajek3n = 5Hajek took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricPavlikHajekP − HBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match42.641.8+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 320 vs 365 / 67251.9%54.3%166 / 320 vs 365 / 672Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekPavlik 2.25/Hajek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 28 · 17:45A. Pavlik—851111113M. Hajek—11116732
WAug 10 · 20:48A. Pavlik—71111113M. Hajek—115661
LAug 10 · 19:45A. Pavlik—41151172M. Hajek—114118113
LOct 31 · 16:30A. Pavlik—911111172M. Hajek—117813113
WOct 14 · 14:45A. Pavlik—11211113M. Hajek—611561
LJul 30 · 14:15A. Pavlik—111010111M. Hajek—71212133
LJul 22 · 14:00A. Pavlik—511111262M. Hajek—119714113
LJul 8 · 20:30A. Pavlik—591581M. Hajek—111113113
WJul 8 · 19:15A. Pavlik—119119113M. Hajek—71181182
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371LSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101WSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113LSep 4 · 11:45M. Hajek1.73116571Z. Vasatko2.0091111113LSep 4 · 10:15T. Hucko1.801113113M. Hajek1.9191170
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