TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084297
Played Sep 6Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13111198111012711
Leon Kolman
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 103 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 10–14 Leon Kolman Adam Pavlik has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Kolman
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1573 vs Kolman 1619
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 0% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 40% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -5 · Kolman +2
Pavlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.00 / Kolman 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084297
Pavlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 42 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Kolman1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 109 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it87% 48 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it70% 83 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik4wins
AwayKolman6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik60%3 of 5
AwayKolman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavlik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavlik3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Pavlik2Kolman4n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
S5Pavlik2Kolman1n = 3Pavlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikKolmanP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.6−0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 318 vs 357 / 67351.9%53.1%165 / 318 vs 357 / 673Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanPavlik 2.00/Kolman 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik—101111742L. Kolman—129311113
WAug 15 · 12:20A. Pavlik—119911113L. Kolman—91111682
LAug 15 · 09:15A. Pavlik—118971L. Kolman—81111113
LJun 24 · 13:45A. Pavlik—178891L. Kolman—151111113
LMay 26 · 14:30A. Pavlik—9780L. Kolman—1111113
LMay 9 · 08:24A. Pavlik—5960L. Kolman—1111113
WMay 9 · 06:45A. Pavlik—1111113L. Kolman—7650
WFeb 11 · 21:39A. Pavlik—611511113L. Kolman—11711842
LFeb 11 · 19:00A. Pavlik—811981L. Kolman—11611103
WFeb 8 · 21:51A. Pavlik—1111113L. Kolman—6890
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163WAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113
Upcoming Matches
A. Pavlik
Nothing scheduled
L. Kolman
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