TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031616
Played Aug 28Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611114910––
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-10
Point 67 set 4, 9-10 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 54.0%
67 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Provaznik 15–9 Adam Pavlik Adam Pavlik has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:51What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Provaznik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1569 vs Pavlik 1627
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Pavlik 100%
Pavlik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Pavlik 80%
Pavlik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Pavlik +5
Pavlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.80 / Pavlik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavlik)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13031616
Provaznik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 54 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Pavlik1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 42 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik7wins
AwayPavlik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik100%6 of 6
AwayPavlik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik6Pavlik4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik6Pavlik4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik2Pavlik3n = 5Pavlik took 3 of 5
S5Provaznik3Pavlik0n = 3Provaznik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikPavlikProvaznik − PavlikBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.4+4.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 482 vs 166 / 32047.7%51.9%230 / 482 vs 166 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikProvaznik 1.80/Pavlik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 20:19P. Provaznik—1111113A. Pavlik—9970
LAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik—861191A. Pavlik—11114103
WAug 6 · 16:48P. Provaznik—811118113A. Pavlik—11771162
WAug 6 · 13:15P. Provaznik—1112113A. Pavlik—41060
LJul 8 · 15:00P. Provaznik—4560A. Pavlik—1111113
LJun 29 · 16:48P. Provaznik—81170A. Pavlik—1113113
WJun 29 · 14:15P. Provaznik—1111814113A. Pavlik—47111642
WApr 15 · 16:28P. Provaznik—11116113A. Pavlik—871181
WApr 15 · 14:30P. Provaznik—139811113A. Pavlik—111111642
WApr 10 · 15:00P. Provaznik—1111113A. Pavlik—8330
P. Provaznik10
WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:15P. Provaznik2.509101121M. Hajek1.5011126113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
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