TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073891
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11981111131412511
Ondrej Horak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Ondrej Horak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 105 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 7–8 Ondrej Horak Petr Provaznik has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1530 vs Horak 1509
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 20% vs Horak 60%
Horak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 30% vs Horak 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -3 · Horak -1
Provaznik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.91 / Horak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073891
Provaznik1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Horak1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 16 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it62% 8 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwayHorak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik80%4 of 5
AwayHorak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik5Horak5n = 10split evenly
S2Provaznik6Horak4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik5Horak5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik3Horak4n = 7Horak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikHorakP − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.3−0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 488 vs 93 / 19347.3%48.2%231 / 488 vs 93 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakProvaznik 1.91/Horak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 21 · 16:33P. Provaznik—114861O. Horak—91111113
LJul 21 · 14:30P. Provaznik—66110O. Horak—1111133
LJul 14 · 15:15P. Provaznik—411711132O. Horak—117116153
LJul 8 · 16:38P. Provaznik—881171O. Horak—11119113
WJul 8 · 14:00P. Provaznik—11911113O. Horak—611861
LJun 25 · 14:45P. Provaznik—811561O. Horak—11911113
LJun 16 · 15:00P. Provaznik—813147112O. Horak—11111211133
WJun 5 · 16:14P. Provaznik—1211113O. Horak—10730
WJun 5 · 13:45P. Provaznik—11119113O. Horak—971141
WMay 20 · 17:19P. Provaznik—1111113O. Horak—9670
P. Provaznik10
WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113LAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103LAug 28 · 18:15P. Provaznik2.509101121M. Hajek1.5011126113
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad1.401111113O. Horak2.757380LAug 21 · 14:45O. Horak2.75119671T. Hybl1.4051111113
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