TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466991
Played Aug 21Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115911611711––
Tomas Hybl
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Hybl to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Tomas Hybl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Hybl at 66.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 1–3 Tomas Hybl Ondrej Horak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hybl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Hybl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1531 vs Hybl 1583
Hybl
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 20% vs Hybl 40%
Hybl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 50% vs Hybl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -4 · Hybl +1
Horak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hybl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hybl form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 2.75 / Hybl 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Hybl)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12466991
Horak2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 31 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Hybl1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 33 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHorak1wins
AwayHybl3wins
Hybl leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHybl100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak1Hybl3n = 4Hybl took 3 of 4
S2Horak2Hybl2n = 4split evenly
S3Horak1Hybl3n = 4Hybl took 3 of 4
S4Horak1Hybl2n = 3Hybl took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHorakHyblHorak − HyblBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match30.035.5−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakHyblBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 191 vs 76 / 14748.2%51.7%92 / 191 vs 76 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HyblHorak 2.75/Hybl 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Hybl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hybl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJun 5 · 15:45O. Horak—7670T. Hybl—1111113
WMay 7 · 16:58O. Horak—11113113T. Hybl—751151
LMay 7 · 16:00O. Horak—651141T. Hybl—11115113
LMar 4 · 17:00O. Horak—1011981T. Hybl—12911113
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad1.401111113O. Horak2.757380
T. Hybl10
LSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751LSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113WSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111LSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123LAug 29 · 08:29R. Merkl2.63118117113T. Hybl1.4481171162LAug 29 · 07:30D. Brichacek2.5011911123T. Hybl1.505118101WAug 29 · 07:00T. Hybl1.50111111113R. Merkl2.50781371LAug 29 · 06:00T. Hybl2.257560M. Skyba1.571111113LAug 25 · 12:18Z. Vasatko1.7371113113T. Hybl2.001161191WAug 25 · 11:15T. Hucko1.8376100T. Hybl1.831111123
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