TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022779
Played Aug 27Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119911711117
Milos Soukup
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilos Soukup to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Milos Soukup below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Milos Soukup at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 2–3 Milos Soukup Ondrej Horak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:13What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Soukup
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1521 vs Soukup 1466
Horak
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 0% vs Soukup 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 20% vs Soukup 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -5 · Soukup -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Soukup)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Soukup form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.91 / Soukup 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Soukup)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022779
Horak1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 29 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Soukup1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite41% won 11 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it67% 8 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHorak2wins
AwaySoukup3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSoukup leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak33.3%1 of 3
AwaySoukupn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak3Soukup2n = 5Horak took 3 of 5
S2Horak3Soukup2n = 5Horak took 3 of 5
S3Horak2Soukup3n = 5Soukup took 3 of 5
S4Horak0Soukup5n = 5Soukup took 5 of 5
S5Horak2Soukup1n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHorakSoukupH − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.444.2−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakSoukupBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 196 vs 29 / 6748%43.3%94 / 196 vs 29 / 67Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SoukupHorak 1.91/Soukup 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Soukup · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak—111197113M. Soukup—79111172
WJun 9 · 13:45O. Horak—8111111113M. Soukup—11661362
LMay 20 · 14:00O. Horak—11411472M. Soukup—611811113
LApr 1 · 17:09O. Horak—315781M. Soukup—111311113
LApr 1 · 14:00O. Horak—111771M. Soukup—81111113
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad1.401111113O. Horak2.757380LAug 21 · 14:45O. Horak2.75119671T. Hybl1.4051111113
M. Soukup10
WAug 27 · 16:23M. Soukup1.571013711113T. Hanke2.25121111552LAug 27 · 15:45M. Soukup2.101011111182Z. Kuksa1.67121388113WAug 27 · 14:15T. Hanke1.913550M. Soukup1.801111113LAug 20 · 16:29M. Soukup2.00713811132Z. Kuksa1.731111117153LAug 20 · 15:30Z. Kuksa2.0011119113M. Soukup1.73941161LAug 20 · 15:00M. Soukup1.914480V. Lopata1.801111113LAug 20 · 14:00M. Soukup1.506890P. Hala2.501111113LAug 18 · 16:38T. Kanka1.67512511113M. Soukup2.10111011282LAug 18 · 15:30O. Chadima1.911213113M. Soukup1.80101190LAug 18 · 15:00M. Soukup1.8376110L. Kolman1.831111133
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