TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073996
Played Sep 4Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11610121210118––
Martin Bruk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Martin Bruk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 6–3 Martin Bruk Martin Bruk has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Horak
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1509 vs Bruk 1523
Bruk
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 60% vs Bruk 40%
Horak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 30% vs Bruk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -1 · Bruk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.80 / Bruk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Horak)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073996
Horak1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 16 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it62% 8 of 13
Bruk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 31 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHorak6wins
AwayBruk3wins
5 of 9 to a deciderHorak leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak60%3 of 5
AwayBruk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak5Bruk4n = 9Horak took 5 of 9
S2Horak4Bruk5n = 9Bruk took 5 of 9
S3Horak6Bruk3n = 9Horak took 6 of 9
S4Horak3Bruk5n = 8Bruk took 5 of 8
S5Horak4Bruk1n = 5Horak took 4 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricHorakBrukH − BBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match44.443.8+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakBrukBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 193 vs 200 / 38448.2%52.1%93 / 193 vs 200 / 384Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.80/Bruk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 30 · 16:29O. Horak—8111110113M. Bruk—11651282
LJun 30 · 14:00O. Horak—159861M. Bruk—131111113
WMay 27 · 17:08O. Horak—991111133M. Bruk—111147112
WMay 27 · 16:00O. Horak—11114133M. Bruk—9811111
WMay 15 · 14:00O. Horak—1216149113M. Bruk—1018121192
WApr 1 · 16:00O. Horak—811811113M. Bruk—11711882
LOct 8 · 14:30O. Horak—11611572M. Bruk—811911113
LAug 5 · 16:00O. Horak—8611101M. Bruk—11119113
WJul 11 · 15:30O. Horak—1111113M. Bruk—8990
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad1.401111113O. Horak2.757380LAug 21 · 14:45O. Horak2.75119671T. Hybl1.4051111113
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
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