TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482473
Played Aug 24Finished
Martin Bruk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611116118711
Roman Merkl
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:18 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Bruk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Bruk above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Bruk at 56.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Bruk 10–8 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:18What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bruk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Bruk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bruk 1506 vs Merkl 1580
Merkl
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bruk 0% vs Merkl 40%
Merkl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bruk 30% vs Merkl 50%
Merkl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bruk -5 · Merkl +1
Bruk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Merkl) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruk form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBruk 1.73 / Merkl 2.00
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Merkl)+8.5pp
Setka Cup · #12482473
Bruk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 52 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Merkl2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 93 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back40% 44 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBruk7wins
AwayMerkl3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBruk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBruk66.7%6 of 9
AwayMerkln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bruk9Merkl1n = 10Bruk took 9 of 10
S2Bruk5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S3Bruk5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S4Bruk5Merkl2n = 7Bruk took 5 of 7
S5Bruk2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrukMerklB − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.237.8+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrukMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 381 vs 272 / 56152%48.5%198 / 381 vs 272 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklBruk 1.73/Merkl 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 3 · 20:00M. Bruk—11391282R. Merkl—9111110113
WJun 22 · 17:14M. Bruk—1211113R. Merkl—10480
LJun 22 · 14:00M. Bruk—111281142R. Merkl—814117113
WJun 15 · 17:08M. Bruk—1111133R. Merkl—66110
WJun 15 · 15:00M. Bruk—111111143R. Merkl—6813121
WMay 28 · 19:45M. Bruk—11811113R. Merkl—911791
WFeb 11 · 11:45M. Bruk—1011119113R. Merkl—12971182
LJan 3 · 18:30M. Bruk—11131041R. Merkl—91512113
WJan 1 · 20:45M. Bruk—1110911113R. Merkl—81211532
WSep 16 · 12:11M. Bruk—1111123R. Merkl—48100
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.