TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482379
Played Aug 24Finished
Dominik Marasek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181181113116––
Martin Bruk
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Marasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Marasek above · Martin Bruk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Dominik Marasek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Marasek 4–5 Martin Bruk Dominik Marasek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Marasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marasek 1620 vs Bruk 1514
Marasek
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marasek 60% vs Bruk 20%
Marasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marasek 50% vs Bruk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marasek +2 · Bruk -4
Bruk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Marasek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruk form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarasek 1.50 / Bruk 2.50
Signal prob.62% / 39%
Edge (Marasek)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12482379
Marasek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Bruk2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 31 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMarasek4wins
AwayBruk5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderBruk leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarasek100%3 of 3
AwayBruk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marasek3Bruk6n = 9Bruk took 6 of 9
S2Marasek5Bruk4n = 9Marasek took 5 of 9
S3Marasek5Bruk4n = 9Marasek took 5 of 9
S4Marasek3Bruk3n = 6split evenly
S5Marasek2Bruk2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMarasekBrukM − BBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.338.2+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarasekBrukBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 239 vs 198 / 38047.3%52.1%113 / 239 vs 198 / 380Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarasekMarasek 1.50/Bruk 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.5%
Marasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LMay 14 · 17:15D. Marasek—911126142M. Bruk—1151011163
LApr 29 · 14:15D. Marasek—67111182M. Bruk—111138113
WApr 14 · 16:38D. Marasek—1111211113M. Bruk—13811652
LApr 14 · 14:30D. Marasek—8860M. Bruk—1111113
WJan 22 · 15:15D. Marasek—1110811113M. Bruk—91211992
LNov 19 · 15:45D. Marasek—811981M. Bruk—11511113
LOct 22 · 15:15D. Marasek—541151M. Bruk—11117113
WJan 31 · 17:37D. Marasek—1111113M. Bruk—9670
WJan 31 · 16:00D. Marasek—1115113M. Bruk—31350
D. Marasek10
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113WAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
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