TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067459
Played Sep 3Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116611117––
Dominik Marasek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Petr Semrad at 63.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 12–6 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Semrad
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1675 vs Marasek 1714
Marasek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 40% vs Marasek 100%
Marasek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 50% vs Marasek 100%
Marasek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad -1 · Marasek +5
Marasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.50 / Marasek 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Semrad)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067459
Semrad1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 90 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it91% 38 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it68% 59 of 87
Marasek2.50
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 26 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad6wins
AwayMarasek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSemrad leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad60%3 of 5
AwayMarasek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad5Marasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Semrad4Marasek6n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S3Semrad6Marasek4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Semrad7Marasek0n = 7Semrad took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradMarasekS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.4+3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 534 vs 121 / 24050.8%50.4%271 / 534 vs 121 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.50/Marasek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad—1213161342D. Marasek—10151811113
WAug 21 · 14:15P. Semrad—101111113D. Marasek—127661
WAug 18 · 16:48P. Semrad—11911143D. Marasek—9119121
WAug 18 · 13:15P. Semrad—1114123D. Marasek—412100
WJul 31 · 15:15P. Semrad—111011113D. Marasek—612771
WJun 16 · 14:15P. Semrad—81111123D. Marasek—1184101
LJun 10 · 16:49P. Semrad—71020D. Marasek—1112113
LJun 10 · 15:45P. Semrad—9970D. Marasek—1111113
WApr 30 · 15:15P. Semrad—101112113D. Marasek—1281031
LApr 29 · 13:15P. Semrad—13881182D. Marasek—1111112113
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:15P. Semrad1.50911891P. Hala2.5011411113
D. Marasek10
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113WAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131WAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361
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