TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055120
Played Sep 1Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210131516181311411
Dominik Marasek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 123 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 68.5%
123 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 11–5 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Semrad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Semrad
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1696 vs Marasek 1647
Semrad
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 60% vs Marasek 100%
Marasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 70% vs Marasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad -1 · Marasek +5
Marasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.44 / Marasek 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Semrad)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055120
Semrad1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 87 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it68% 57 of 84
Marasek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 24 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back25% 8 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad6wins
AwayMarasek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSemrad leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad80%4 of 5
AwayMarasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad5Marasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Semrad3Marasek7n = 10Marasek took 7 of 10
S3Semrad6Marasek4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Semrad6Marasek1n = 7Semrad took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradMarasekS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.2+3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 532 vs 115 / 23450.8%49.2%270 / 532 vs 115 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.44/Marasek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 16:48P. Semrad—11911143D. Marasek—9119121
WAug 18 · 13:15P. Semrad—1114123D. Marasek—412100
WJul 31 · 15:15P. Semrad—111011113D. Marasek—612771
WJun 16 · 14:15P. Semrad—81111123D. Marasek—1184101
LJun 10 · 16:49P. Semrad—71020D. Marasek—1112113
LJun 10 · 15:45P. Semrad—9970D. Marasek—1111113
WApr 30 · 15:15P. Semrad—101112113D. Marasek—1281031
LApr 29 · 13:15P. Semrad—13881182D. Marasek—1111112113
LApr 14 · 13:30P. Semrad—11911101D. Marasek—13119123
WMar 13 · 14:15P. Semrad—118811113D. Marasek—51111572
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113
D. Marasek10
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113WAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131WAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361
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