TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079058
Played Sep 5Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711113105––
Libor Smazik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-5
Point 66 set 4, 10-5 — our read held Petr Semrad at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 28–27 Libor Smazik Libor Smazik has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:59What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1677 vs Smazik 1587
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 60% vs Smazik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 60% vs Smazik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad -1 · Smazik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.91 / Smazik 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Semrad)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079058
Semrad1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 48 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Smazik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 63 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it74% 50 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad5wins
AwaySmazik5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad75%3 of 4
AwaySmazik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad4Smazik6n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S2Semrad4Smazik6n = 10Smazik took 6 of 10
S3Semrad5Smazik5n = 10split evenly
S4Semrad4Smazik1n = 5Semrad took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradSmazikSemrad − SmazikBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.735.8+0.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 536 vs 212 / 40450.8%52.5%272 / 536 vs 212 / 404Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.91/Smazik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad—111110113L. Smazik—561251
LJul 15 · 12:58P. Semrad—125111192L. Smazik—141158113
LJul 15 · 10:15P. Semrad—9590L. Smazik—1111113
LJul 13 · 13:30P. Semrad—711110L. Smazik—1113133
WJul 12 · 12:58P. Semrad—1111113L. Smazik—8890
LJul 12 · 12:00P. Semrad—9880L. Smazik—1111113
WJul 11 · 12:00P. Semrad—8101511113L. Smazik—111213532
WJul 10 · 16:23P. Semrad—81711113L. Smazik—1115371
LJul 10 · 13:15P. Semrad—1211241L. Smazik—101311113
WJun 21 · 14:00P. Semrad—1113113L. Smazik—81190
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:15P. Semrad1.50911891P. Hala2.5011411113
L. Smazik10
LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251LJul 16 · 13:15T. Hucko2.6361111113L. Smazik1.44117881WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik1.67141158113P. Semrad2.10125111192LJul 15 · 11:45L. Smazik1.73121111992L. Kolman2.00146811113WJul 15 · 10:15P. Semrad2.009590L. Smazik1.731111113
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