TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079151
Played Sep 5Finished
Zdenek Vasatko
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111181141210––
Libor Smazik
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZdenek Vasatko above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 72 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Libor Smazik at 71.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Vasatko 9–21 Libor Smazik Zdenek Vasatko has won 9 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-21 in 30
Smazik
Wrong
gap of 12 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasatko 1641 vs Smazik 1570
Vasatko
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasatko 40% vs Smazik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasatko 30% vs Smazik 50%
Smazik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasatko +1 · Smazik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Smazik) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasatko 3.00 / Smazik 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Smazik)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079151
Vasatko3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 27 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Smazik1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 63 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it74% 50 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVasatko2wins
AwaySmazik8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasatko40%2 of 5
AwaySmazik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasatko5Smazik5n = 10split evenly
S2Vasatko1Smazik9n = 10Smazik took 9 of 10
S3Vasatko2Smazik8n = 10Smazik took 8 of 10
S4Vasatko1Smazik3n = 4Smazik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricVasatkoSmazikV − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match29.636.1−6.5per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasatkoSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 281 vs 209 / 40149.1%52.1%138 / 281 vs 209 / 401Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikVasatko 3.00/Smazik 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vasatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 24 · 12:00Z. Vasatko—11891172L. Smazik—511116113
WMay 23 · 12:44Z. Vasatko—1111113L. Smazik—3750
LMay 23 · 11:45Z. Vasatko—8860L. Smazik—1111113
LMar 24 · 12:00Z. Vasatko—76110L. Smazik—1111133
LFeb 16 · 17:15Z. Vasatko—55100L. Smazik—1111113
LFeb 16 · 16:15Z. Vasatko—6630L. Smazik—1111113
LDec 16 · 13:00Z. Vasatko—1950L. Smazik—1111103
LDec 15 · 10:15Z. Vasatko—115691L. Smazik—71111113
WNov 11 · 16:45Z. Vasatko—1191112113L. Smazik—91181482
LNov 7 · 12:15Z. Vasatko—154891L. Smazik—131111113
Z. Vasatko10
WSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162LSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Hajek1.73116571Z. Vasatko2.0091111113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac1.911111113Z. Vasatko1.808150LSep 4 · 09:15T. Hucko1.8351111113Z. Vasatko1.83116871LAug 31 · 16:38L. Kolman2.001111113Z. Vasatko1.738340LAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 14:30Z. Vasatko1.7311119772L. Kolman2.00921111113
L. Smazik10
LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251LJul 16 · 13:15T. Hucko2.6361111113L. Smazik1.44117881WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik1.67141158113P. Semrad2.10125111192LJul 15 · 11:45L. Smazik1.73121111992L. Kolman2.00146811113WJul 15 · 10:15P. Semrad2.009590L. Smazik1.731111113
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