TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079307
Played Sep 5Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116711115––
Libor Smazik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Libor Smazik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Libor Smazik at 58.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 5–9 Libor Smazik Matej Svitac has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Smazik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1637 vs Smazik 1566
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 40% vs Smazik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 30% vs Smazik 50%
Smazik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac -3 · Smazik -2
Svitac
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Smazik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 2.38 / Smazik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Smazik)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079307
Svitac2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Smazik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 63 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it74% 50 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac4wins
AwaySmazik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmazik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac33.3%1 of 3
AwaySmazik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S2Svitac5Smazik5n = 10split evenly
S3Svitac3Smazik7n = 10Smazik took 7 of 10
S4Svitac4Smazik3n = 7Svitac took 4 of 7
S5Svitac2Smazik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacSmazikSvitac − SmazikBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.138.0−1.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacSmazikBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 376 vs 209 / 40254.8%52%206 / 376 vs 209 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikSvitac 2.38/Smazik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 2 · 19:45M. Svitac—61111113L. Smazik—114631
LApr 27 · 09:15M. Svitac—19100L. Smazik—1111123
LApr 13 · 12:14M. Svitac—9870L. Smazik—1111113
WApr 13 · 11:15M. Svitac—91111113L. Smazik—119961
LApr 1 · 12:00M. Svitac—911851L. Smazik—11711113
LMar 24 · 13:38M. Svitac—111168122L. Smazik—771111143
WMar 24 · 12:30M. Svitac—1211711123L. Smazik—1013115102
LMar 20 · 13:49M. Svitac—111111282L. Smazik—813111113
WMar 20 · 11:15M. Svitac—611711113L. Smazik—11211862
LFeb 12 · 17:16M. Svitac—4360L. Smazik—1111113
M. Svitac10
WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860LSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:13M. Svitac1.7313580T. Hucko2.001511113WSep 4 · 11:15T. Hucko2.0015414462M. Svitac1.7313111211113WSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac1.911111113Z. Vasatko1.808150
L. Smazik10
LSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113LSep 5 · 14:45Z. Vasatko3.0051111123L. Smazik1.361184101LSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351WJul 16 · 16:18L. Smazik1.501111113T. Hucko2.508630WJul 16 · 15:45L. Provaznik1.736790L. Smazik2.001111113LJul 16 · 14:45P. Semrad2.00111110113L. Smazik1.73561251LJul 16 · 13:15T. Hucko2.6361111113L. Smazik1.44117881WJul 15 · 12:58L. Smazik1.67141158113P. Semrad2.10125111192LJul 15 · 11:45L. Smazik1.73121111992L. Kolman2.00146811113WJul 15 · 10:15P. Semrad2.009590L. Smazik1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.