TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079258
Played Sep 5Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118116––––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Matej Svitac at 57.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 4–9 Matej Svitac Petr Semrad has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1693 vs Svitac 1658
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 60% vs Svitac 40%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 60% vs Svitac 40%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +1 · Svitac -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 2.10 / Svitac 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Svitac)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079258
Semrad2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 48 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Svitac1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad3wins
AwaySvitac7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSvitac leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad60%3 of 5
AwaySvitac100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S2Semrad2Svitac8n = 10Svitac took 8 of 10
S3Semrad6Svitac4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Semrad3Svitac5n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5Semrad1Svitac3n = 4Svitac took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradSvitacSemrad − SvitacBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.539.4−2.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 533 vs 206 / 37550.7%54.9%270 / 533 vs 206 / 375Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSemrad 2.10/Svitac 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 16:20P. Semrad—11911113M. Svitac—511991
LSep 1 · 14:45P. Semrad—1191281M. Svitac—61114113
LAug 15 · 12:50P. Semrad—7960M. Svitac—1111113
WAug 15 · 09:45P. Semrad—11311113M. Svitac—611381
LJul 24 · 12:53P. Semrad—281151M. Svitac—11117113
WJul 24 · 11:45P. Semrad—111186113M. Svitac—85111142
LJul 23 · 10:15P. Semrad—81190M. Svitac—1113113
LJul 20 · 12:23P. Semrad—11311752M. Svitac—611911113
LJul 20 · 11:15P. Semrad—391111112M. Svitac—111179133
LApr 12 · 15:30P. Semrad—71111582M. Svitac—113811113
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:15P. Semrad1.50911891P. Hala2.5011411113
M. Svitac10
WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:13M. Svitac1.7313580T. Hucko2.001511113WSep 4 · 11:15T. Hucko2.0015414462M. Svitac1.7313111211113WSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac1.911111113Z. Vasatko1.808150
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